With the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, the Chicago Blackhawks selected Connor Bedard. Follow our live NHL Draft blog for analysis from all our writers and columnists.
Anyone who turned on their televisions in December and watched the world juniors is aware that Regina center and projected first pick in the 2023 NHL Draft Connor Bedard is an elite NHL prospect. But how good exactly? How would he compare to some of the very best prospects of the last few years? We decided to ask the industry.
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Five NHL scouts and executives were polled for this list. They were asked to rank the last nine first picks in the NHL Draft and Connor Bedard, with the perspective of what they thought of the prospects in their draft years. The last part is key, and hard to control 100 percent given the information we’ve gotten since then on a lot of the players.
I don’t think McDavid being No. 1 is much of a surprise. McDavid was the definition of a generational prospect. A special skater with tremendous skill, hockey sense and a high compete level, he’s as close to a perfect hockey player as I’ve seen coming up as an amateur.
2. Connor Bedard — 2023
While I know some have wondered whether Bedard should be considered generational — I get asked that question semi regularly — the NHL voters I asked mostly felt there was a gap between McDavid and Bedard at the same age. It’s tough to define what exactly “generational” means, so I reframed the question to ask whether Bedard is at the same level as a prospect as McDavid was at the same age. While there’s been the odd voice I talk to in the NHL who feels it’s close between the two players at the same age, most feel there’s a clear distinction and would not call Bedard a McDavid-level prospect. Bedard is just as prolific, if not a slightly more prolific scorer than McDavid was as a junior. The distinction would be the athletic traits. McDavid was a much bigger player, and while Bedard skates well, McDavid is the best skater in the world and was a far better skater at the same age. For those reasons, most of the NHL voters did not view Bedard as a true generational prospect. They saw him as closer to Patrick Kane as a prospect at the same age. One scout who did feel he crossed that line felt that Bedard could easily hit 70 points next season in the NHL if healthy.
In terms of the five NHL scouts polled, three of them voted for Bedard as the second-best prospect of the last ten years, and two of them voted for Matthews. When asked what they thought the margin was, they felt it was close between the two of them going into their drafts. Some preferred Matthews for his size and confidence in playing the center position in the NHL, which is an open question for Bedard, but others leaned to Bedard for his truly special offensive skill set. One of the voters felt Bedard, Matthews and Hughes were interchangeable as prospects going into their drafts.
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Matthews was an incredible draft-eligible prospect. Personally, I would have ranked him ahead of Bedard at the same age, but it would be close. Bedard had that incredible performance at the world juniors, but Matthews was a top player at the world championships in his draft season. Throughout his amateur career, he displayed incredible goal-scoring ability and puck skill, not unlike Bedard in some aspects, but probably a notch below Bedard, while being a big-body center too.
Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes. (Andy Marlin / NHLI via Getty Images)Four of the five scouts voted for Hughes as the fourth-best prospect of this group; Owen Power was the only other player to get a fourth-place vote. There were minor concerns at the time about Hughes’ size, not unlike Bedard, but he was an outstanding prospect who led a record-setting U.S. NTDP team. His elite skating and skill combination made him a unique prospect.
Aside from Bedard versus Matthews, the tightest margin among the voters was between Dahlin and Power for the best defense prospect of the last decade. Three voters preferred Dahlin, two preferred Power, and they were always one spot apart in each voter’s overall list. Dahlin’s draft season was excellent. He made SHL opponents at times look silly with his skill and was the best defenseman at his world juniors.
6. Owen Power — 2021
Power got a lot of love from the panelists. He was not the sexiest No. 1 pick, and his highlight reel going into his draft year would have left a lot of fans yawning, but his game had a lot of appeal from an NHL standpoint. As a very tall yet mobile defenseman with legit skill and puck-moving ability, Power was a highly attractive pro prospect who has looked very good in the NHL early on.
I was curious where Lafrenière would end up in this survey. He’s a good player but hasn’t become a true top-scoring winger yet in the NHL. The hype on him in his draft season was high though after tearing up junior and being named MVP at his world juniors. When colleague Craig Custance did a similar article leading into the 2020 draft, the story was slightly different. Albeit with a different pool of voters, Lafrenière was number five in that exercise, ahead of Jack Hughes who was number six. There could be some bias at play here, although I know a number of scouts who were skeptical of the Lafrenière hype at the time of his pick due to his skating.
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Hischier was a highly productive player in his draft season who had a great world juniors, although his U18 World Championship wasn’t as good. He was considered a very skilled and intelligent all-around player; there wasn’t a true special dimension to his game like some of the players listed higher here. He has since though developed into an excellent NHL forward.
Ekblad, like Power, was more of a dull first pick as a big, mobile two-way defenseman who was physically advanced and had a full beard in his draft season. Ekblad still played a big role for Canada’s U20 team, and was the best defenseman in the OHL. There was just a lack of a wow factor in his game, whereas Power had that with his size at least.
“Slafkovsky is very talented, but his first overall case was basically built on a few big tournaments and his toolkit as opposed to how he was with his club. That’s a lot different of a resume from the other No. 1 picks,” said one voter. It’s a fair case. It doesn’t mean Slafkovsky isn’t thought of highly by the evaluators, but he’s just not in the same stratosphere as other recent first picks.
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